Risk of Subsidence due to Evaporite Solution
A European Prediction and Management Scheme.
Final Report (2002)

SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS (Chapter 8)

During the first two years of the ROSES project significant advances were documented in the annual progress reports. The Final Report has presented some further major advances in the following areas.
A coherent view on the concepts of speleogenesis in evaporite terrains. This view has reached far beyond the initial anticipation of the ROSES project and has significant implications for the assessment of karst related subsidence problems in all karst terrains including carbonate terrains which are far more widespread than evaporite karsts.

  • Detailed data gathered and interpreted on dissolution rates in all speleogenetic setting. This data se: is valuable when assessing and predicting dissolution rates different environemnts as part of ne hazard assessment scheme.
  • Data and interpretations never before collected, interpreted or published in the field of karst-related ground subsidence. Mapping of karst breakdown structures in gypsum caves has provided a unique insight into the processes which operate underground and will be of immense value to engineering geologists attempting to interpret site investigation data and assess the risk of subsidence due to evaporite karst.
  • Monitoring of karst subsidence in the Ebro valley of Northern Spain by using sequential photography, geomorphological mapping and analysis of climate has demonstrated a strong link between karst processes at depth, in the shallow subsurface and the interaction they share with climatical events such as high intensity rainfall events.
  • Investigating gypsum dissolution in the deep seated gypsum karst of Northern England has developed completely new techniques of natural tracing which enable the karst system to be understood by remote measurements of groundwater quality and piezometric data. This work has also developed a protocol for analysing water quality data to discrirninate the effects of gypsum and limestone dissolution in an environment where neither formations are directly accessible.
The EVE code has managed to accurately model the development of cave patterns seen in intrastratal karst (which is the most hazardous setting with respect to subsidence). The model simulations produced accurate reproductions of natural cave systems in this setting Subsequent simulations run to investigate anthropogenic effects revealed some unexpected consequences 0 anthropogenic modification of the ground surface.
  • The ROSES hazard assessment scheme has been developed from a first principle approach to understanding processes in karst systems by formalising and analysing the individual components of karst systems The Scheme was developed following a thorough review of hazard assessment schemes which showed most schemes to be lacking in essential scientific understanding. The scheme is unique amongst hazard assessernent and owing to its utilisation of fundamental speleogenetic understanding may be applied with same development to limestone karst. The scheme has also been developed with object oriented programming in mind and may be developed into an expert system in the future.
  • The management techniques component of ROSES was mostly completed in year 2 of the project and has concentrated on advanced engineering design methods to allow far the appearance of sinkholes.
  • Dissemination of results: the ROSES team have arranged for a special issue to be published on the results of the ROSES work in the journal Environmental Geology, the abstracts of which are included in Appendix 1. This is a high impact journal of excellent international standing. Published in the USA and read widely throughout the world it provides an ideal platform for the large scale dissemination of ROSES project results. In addition to this special Issue, Appendices 2 and 3 contain the abstracts of papers published or accepted for publication. Together with the papers Iisted in appendix 1, the total number of papers expected as a result of the ROSES project number 21.


ROSES: Risk of Subsidence due to Evaporite Solution
A European Prediction and Management Scheme. Final Report (2002).->133 S., zr. Abb., Tab. u. Graph.; Newcastel/UK (University, Hektogr.) [ http://www.ncl.ac.uk/roses/ ]